True, experts expect them to return to their current level in the fall.
By mid-May, due to the crisis caused by the COVID-19 pandemic, the cost of rental housing in Moscow and St. Petersburg may decrease by 15-30%, in Russia as a whole - by 15%. This forecast was given to Izvestia by real estate market participants. The reason for the fall will be problems in the labor market and a decrease in the income of tenants, because of which they will have to look for cheaper options. But if the pandemic does not last long, the market may recover by October, experts say.
Hitting the rent
The most noticeable decrease in the cost of rental housing is expected in Moscow and St. Petersburg - up to 30%, the federal real estate company Etazhi told Izvestia. It will be associated with the self-isolation regime and the general economic crisis caused by the coronavirus pandemic.
In large cities of the country, prices will drop by 10-15%. Lease of all - by 5% - will fall in price in small towns, where even now its cost is low.
Apartment owners refuse daily rent
So far, the changes in rental rates are minimal - the last two weeks, people were clearly not up to it, said Alexei Popov, head of the CIAN analytical center. But it is obvious that the economic situation will become more complicated, including problems on the labor market, he said.
- As a result, those apartments will be vacated, the current tenants of which will no longer be able to pay at the previous price. At the same time, if the landlord has good relations with the tenant, the cost for him can be lowered, the expert believes.
Now about a third of the owners have gone to reduce the rate for their tenants - within 5 thousand rubles. This has to be done to save tenants, many of whom are now having a hard time. The owners thus remove the risks of a long search for new tenants in the future, said the managing director of MIEL-Arenda, Maria Zhukova.
According to Aleksey Popov's forecasts, the main decrease in the rental price will begin in about 1.5 months, by mid-May, if employees transferred to remote work begin to return to their offices.
It is much more difficult to fire employees remotely than offline, he said. In Moscow and St. Petersburg, first of all, landlords will have to abandon the increase in value that has occurred over the past year - about 10-15%, the analyst added.
The trend was confirmed by the managing partner of the Veta expert group Ilya Zharsky. According to him, people will switch to economy mode, and if they lose their wages for a long time, they will have to look for more economical rent, for example, unite in groups and rent one apartment together. Accordingly, vacant areas will appear in the cities, he said. A noticeable decrease in demand will lead to a drop in rental rates, added Artem Deev, head of the analytical department at AMarkets.
The prices for renting a one-room apartment in Moscow can vary greatly depending on the area, renovation, transport accessibility, and so on - the cost varies on average from 25 thousand to 50 thousand rubles per month, Ilya Zharsky noted.
- According to our estimates, the reduction in rent in the capital may range from 15% to 30%. Such a big fork is given for the reason that not all apartments are rented at inflated prices, but large discounts are quite possible. In the regions, the decrease in cost may not be so sharp - 10-15%, since prices there are lower due to low incomes of the population, the analyst believes.
Revealed the impact of coronavirus on the Russian housing market
According to the Veta group, the cost of renting a one-room apartment in St. Petersburg is 15-30 thousand rubles a month, in other large regional cities - 10-25 thousand rubles, in small - 7-12 thousand rubles.
Nothing is eternal
The observed downward trend in the cost of rental housing is not for long, according to experts interviewed by Izvestia. As soon as the crisis subsides, prices will start to rise again. Most likely, the peak of the epidemic will pass in a few months, therefore, the decrease in the rental price can be considered as a temporary and forced phenomenon, Ilya Zharsky believes. Alexey Popov is of a similar opinion. According to his forecast, prices will begin to recover in September-October.
Rather, we are talking about a rental vacation that will last approximately until autumn. At the same time, the owners, who will rent out apartments at low prices in the summer, will probably try to raise them later, said Ildar Khusainov, director of the federal company "Etazhi".
In Moscow today, one of the lowest yields on renting housing - the cost of 1 sq. m is several times higher than the price of a monthly rental.
Therefore, in annual terms, the total amount of income allows you to meet only the daily needs of the owner of such a property. For metropolitan landlords, the reduction in rates will be extremely painful, therefore, the cost will be increased as soon as possible, Ilya Zharsky noted.
But in general, as Avito Real Estate told Izvestia, after the end of the crisis, the marketleases are still pending. In recent weeks, there have been many offers in the mid-term rental segment, because people left for the quarantine period out of town or to visit relatives, and they tried to rent out their homes. This is already affecting the market, and after the quarantine has been lifted, supply volumes, especially in large cities, are likely to increase, the company said.